The AK-47 Index

Where financial centers flash their Dow30, FTSE100 and CAC40, here in Lebanon we have our AK-47 index:

Officially, the only legal weapons in Lebanon are shotguns meant for hunting birds. And although much of the population was heavily armed during the 1975 to 1990 civil war, the various factions agreed to disarm their heavy weapons stockpiles, with the notable exception of Hizbollah.
[...]
But little was done about light weapons – assault rifles, rocket-propelled grenade launchers and sniper rifles – which were often stuffed into storage in homes and villages around Lebanon. And ever since, the arms dealers have used an interesting metric for judging the stability of the country: the price of the ubiquitous AK-47 assault rifle.

And what do these traders have to say about Lebanon’s current “golden period”:

[Abu Mahdi says], “Anyone who tells you that Lebanon is peaceful and stable is lying. Everyone is buying weapons; I can’t keep up.”

What does the government think about all this?

A few minutes after the Hizbollah gunmen arrive, a jeep from the Internal Security Forces, Lebanon’s federal police force, pulls up outside [Abu Mahdi's] shack but neither Mr Mahdi nor his militant customers seem worried. The police officers have arrived to pick up two assault rifles that they ordered a few weeks earlier. They seem to know the fighters and all start happily chatting and playing with the dozens of weapons stuffed in the back of Mr Mahdi’s truck.

Do these traders have any conscience?

By the outbreak of the July 2006 war between Hizbollah and Israel, [the Ak-47] had tripled to $900 as people expected either an occupation by Israel or ongoing civil strife in the aftermath. “The war was terrible for Lebanon but I made $10,000 profit in just a few weeks,” Mr Mahdi admits. “But prices just kept rising.”
[...]
“But I know there is a real problem on the streets right now not just because of the machine guns but because I am selling so many RPG (rocket-propelled grenade) launchers. People only buy grenades when they think war is coming. An RPG isn’t really a weapon you use to protect your house, but everyone is buying them anyway. Not good.”

Not much.

The AK-47

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Breaking News – 09:43am GMT

Israeli commandos seize ship containing arms destined for Hezbollah. Ship was off the coast of Cyprus and had originated from Iran.
Lebanese Army refused to comment stating that the incident occurred outside Lebanon’s borders and outside its national waters. The contents of the ship are being unloaded at the Israeli port of Ashdod.

Source

Update: November 5, 2009

Hezbollah denies link to arms seized from ship by Israel

…Israel had not provided evidence the arms were meant for Hezbollah - and the guerrilla group denied any link to the shipment. In a statement faxed to The Associated Press on Thursday, Hezbollah said it “categorically denies” any connection to the weapons.

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HA: Fear the Christians; Sunnis Are a Push-Over

I usually steer clear of politics on this blog only because there are others who do a great job at tackling it than I do. But I came across this article in the UAE’s The National which I found quite interesting. The journalist is speaking to an unnamed “commander of a Hezbollah security team in Ain Al Roumanieh” following the incident yesterday (Oct. 7). Here’s what he has to say:

“Young men on scooters came from Shiyah and began circling near a restaurant in Ain al Rummaneh,” the spokesman said. “A heated exchange with local residents ensued and knives were used, leaving one dead and four injured, all from Ain al Roumanieh.”
[...]
“I was called to the scene by my commanders to investigate and the Amal youth asked Hizbollah for help,” he said. “We told them ‘No. Your people are out drinking and gambling and getting into fights with the Christians when all of Lebanon is nervous. Enough.’”
[...]
“Those Christians boys are much tougher than the Sunnis; I don’t think the Amal kids understand this. [The Christians] have a lot of training and weapons from the civil war. Hizbollah does not want to see violence with these people,” he said, pointing out that even when Hizbollah and Amal took over West Beirut in May 2008 to rid the area of Sunni militias, they intentionally avoided antagonising their Christian rivals for fear of sparking a wider conflict.

Curious to know your thoughts about this.

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Breaking News – 17:19 GMT

5 Katyusha rockets found near Nakoura in South Lebanon. Rockets were not set to launch.

Update 18:23 GMT: Lebanese army and UN forces discover rockets in southern Lebanon

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